Accidents can happen to any economy. Over the last year, Canadian industry has experienced troubled exports in the energy and gas sectors and our GDP has been essentially flat. Both the US and Canada have gone through many extended flat-stretches; which were then followed by growth. However, the US economy is very fragile at the moment, and we (Canada) are what amounts to ‘guilty by association’. To add fuel to the fire, there are enough clouds on the global horizon have concerns for the near future.
These considerations, and until this global economy is on a more solid track… the Bank of Canada is going to be very patient in raising rates. They are no longer worried that lower rates will trigger inflation; therefore the need to withdraw the monetary stimulus has diminished.
Bottom line? Interest rate hikes, at least for the immediate future, look unlikely. The next Bank of Canada meeting is Jan 18.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) left the overnight interest rate unchanged for the seventh consecutive meeting at 1.0 per cent this morning, a position it has been stuck in since September of last year.
While no one expected the BoC to change rates this morning, the market was still glued to the wires searching for clues about what’s in store for the latter half of 2010.
And it wasn’t disappointed: The bank tweaked its statement to say “some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place (i.e. really low interest rates) will be withdrawn.” In prior press releases the statement read that stimulus would be “eventually withdrawn”.
The BoC remains in a tough position, with the domestic economy ready for higher rates but considerable risk still emanating from places like the U.S. and Europe. The last thing the BoC wants to do is start raising rates and then have some sort of disorderly default in Europe or a lock up in government spending in the U.S., slowing the global economy and disrupting financial markets.
Currently, there is more uncertainty about where rates are going than has been present for some time. The market remains somewhat divided, but this morning’s press releases definitely seemed to be preparing Canadians for a rate hike in the fall. Certainly, nothing is concrete at this point but if the aforementioned global risks start to get resolved, look for rates to start moving higher at either the September 7th or October 25th meetings.
Deeply-discounted variable rates have historically beat out 5-year fixed rates roughly 77% of the time. But CIBC economist Benjamin Tal suggests the coming five years may “slightly” favour fixed rates. He displayed the following chart at the CAAMP (Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals) Forum on Monday, November 22nd:
It projects that the typical variable-rate mortgage (VRM) will be more expensive over five years than the typical 5-year fixed. Benjamin Tal was careful to point out that this isn’t a blanket recommendation of fixed rates; it’s more of a commentary on how narrow the gap has become between fixed and variable mortgages, based on market rate expectations.
Some people will undoubtedly look at this and see no point in assuming the risk of a VRM given the minimal projected cost difference. Whatever the case, rates are near the bottom, and the market is clearly betting on future hikes. However you look at it, going variable is no longer as clear-cut a strategy as it once was.
As your mortgage professional, let me run some rate simulations. If a substantial increase in prime would stress your cash flow, a VRM may not worth the risk. Either way, I’ll be sure to point out the pros & cons of each product and help you choose the product that’s right for you.
According to a Desjardins Group economists article, Canada seems to be in a class of its own.
With a labour market that has recouped all its recession losses, a housing market that was not pummelled like in the U.S. and Europe, and a financial system that hasproven its solidity, Canada appears to be living in a glass bubble. What’s more, it’s the only G7 country to have tightened monetary policy since the end of spring.
The housing market is cooling, and the impending winding down of government stimulus programs will temper growth. Canada’s biggest weakness is probably exports. The course of the U.S. economy, combined with the current global uncertainty, should prompt the Bank of Canada to stop raising rates until next spring.
Following a rate hike of .25% on September 8th, Prime is now sitting at 3% – the rate upon which all Variable mortgages are based.
So is it a good time to go Fixed or Variable? Give me a call to discuss. A good strategy now might save you big in the future.
As you may or may not have heard, we’ve recently seen a drop in Fixed Rates. Here are a few of the lowest Fixed Rates currently available to Canadians:
5yr @ 3.64%* – 3.79%
4yr @ 3.49%
3yr @ 2.90%
*some conditions apply (i.e. prepayment flexibility etc)
How are Fixed Mortgage Rates determined?
The Canadian government and the Bank of Canada both play a major role in setting fixed mortgage rates. Fixed mortgage rates are influenced by the major bond yields. Bonds have always been considered a safer investment than equities and stocks. This is especially true when considering Government bonds.
When an economy is booming, most investors will invest in stocks and equities because they will earn a higher rate of return. This causes demand for bonds to decrease. When this happens, the bonds must increase the yields of the bonds to entice investors.
When an economy is in a recession (much like today), investors will search for a safe place to store their money. Stocks will decrease or have a negative yield, which will cause investors to put money into bonds. This will cause bond yields to go lower because of the increased demand.
When the economy changes, the government of Canada is forced to increase or decrease long term bond prices. When this happens, it will reduce or increase the lending costs for banks. The banks will then pass on these new rates to borrowers by increasing or decreasing fixed mortgage rates.
For more information about rates and where we currently stand in the grand scheme of things, please don’t hesitate to give me a call.
The Bank of Canada has lifted its key lending rate by 1/4 percentage point, to 0.75%. The bank said any further increases “would have to be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments.”
Meaning what? The BoC will now (more than likely) leave well enough alone for the foreseeable future. Although… we’ve heard that before. The next interest rate meeting is September 8th. Below is a chart of where we’ve been over the years. (Click on it for a bigger view)
